Cork or cattle?

Valuing and mapping cork and carbon across land-use scenarios in a Portuguese montado landscape

The montado - Portugal’s cork-oak savanna - supports biodiversity, livelihoods, and cultural heritage, yet faces pressure from climate stress, cattle intensification, and peri-urban development. To inform real decisions, we worked with the forest manager of the country’s largest public agro-silvo-pastoral estate to co-design three plausible futures: Forest Improvement (higher cork-oak density, fewer cattle), Cattle Intensification (tripled stocking rates with expanded pasture/fodder), and Residential Development (low-density exurban build-out with reduced tree density). Using NatCap’s InVEST models, we mapped and valued two decision-relevant services—cork production and carbon storage/sequestration—over a 50-year horizon.

What we found. The Forest Improvement pathway outperformed the status quo and the other scenarios: +13.5% carbon storage (≈104 Gg more over 50 years) and ~+63% cork biomass (10.5 Gg vs. 6.5 Gg today). Translating to money, this scenario yielded the highest combined value from cork and carbon across carbon price assumptions, while Cattle Intensification delivered the lowest and Residential Development hovered near current levels. 

Why it matters. The results show that forest-friendly management can deliver more climate regulation and marketable cork, if policies and markets make it pay. Today’s incentives (e.g., CAP subsidies, weak carbon prices) tilt toward cattle, which risks undermining biodiversity and long-term productivity. Aligning incentives (e.g., PES, stronger carbon markets, support for traditional low-density grazing) could help the montado thrive while meeting climate and conservation goals. 

For more, see the full paper below.